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Miniseries: You can’t predict the future

You can’t predict the future because you can’t predict what you don’t know. For example, how can you predict the future if you don’t know what kind of technological revolutions are going to take place in 5 or 10 years which are going to completely disrupt the industry? Many biggest discoveries to date have been done by accident. There is an unknown variable to predicting which makes predicting useless – especially if you try to predict events which will completely disrupt your industry.

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t prepare for different possible scenarios. You can assume the worst case scenarios for your industry if some kind of Black Swan event happens, and take action to protect your business as much as you can. This can mean accumulating capital, investing in new technologies, or even diversifying the currencies you hold.

Black swan events can either be good or bad. They’re unpredictable, and have abnormally large consequences. If you want to read a good book on the topic, check out Nassim Taleb’s “Black Swan”. It’s not an easy book to read, but it can help you run your business.

Meanwhile, have a long hard look at your business, and think what would happen if everything went wrong, and how could you prepare for that.