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Miniseries: Don’t base your decisions on the first-order thinking.

A lot of time when people react to a problem they use first-order thinking. This means solving the immediate problem without considering the consequences. If you want to be a successful entrepreneur and live an overall good life then you have to have second-order thinking. 

Second-order thinking requires you to ask “what are the effects of this decision in the future?” It is thinking in terms of interactions and time, and understanding that some decisions which solve the immediate problem will create more harm later. 

You can’t outsmart your competitors with first-order thinking, as everyone reaches the same conclusions. Your edge comes from seeing things that your competitors can’t see. 

I leave you with a quote from the American billionaire (author of the great book “Principles”) Ray Dalio:

“Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions, and it is especially deadly when the first inferior option confirms your own biases. Never seize on the first available option, no matter how good it seems, before you’ve asked questions and explored.”